The evidence that Brexit was predictable

While Scotland and northern Ireland feel concerned by a Brexit, this survey casts a light on other people involved by it : expatriates.

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Survey – Brexit
80% of expatriates see in the Brexit a threat to the United Kingdom
Port Louis, March 22nd, 2017
A few days before the official launch of the European Union exit procedure, United Kingdom, 2 polls launched by the Community platform highlight The concerns of expatriates. One of the surveys collected responses from expatriates living inUnited Kingdom, while the other was addressed to the British living in the European Union.
These surveys show a concordance of opinions and results, regardless of nationality of respondents. In total, 80% of respondents believe that the Brexit is a threat to the United Kingdom.
The Brexit strongly affected the lives of more than one in three respondents
34% of expatriates in the UK reported that the Brexit had a significant impact on their life, while 25% noted a slight change in their lives. 40% of respondents did not notice of special change following the referendum. Similar results were noted with the British expatriates in another country of the European Union.
Respondents were able to express themselves freely by adding comments. It appears that the main consequences are psychological: uncertainty about the future, anxiety, depressions, anxiety, stress rises. Many comments reveal the precarious situation couples and mixed families, that is to say, one of the members of which has the nationality of one other EU country.
“Living in total uncertainty about my future in the country given the government’s refusal to
Give details of our status »
“Anxiety, anxiety about our future here”
“I am married to an Englishman. I’m not sure if I can stay in this country. My husband does not know
Not be able to reside in an EU country. One wonders if couples like us will have the right
To live together somewhere.
“I’m afraid of being forced to leave the united kingdom”
“The rest of my family is English, risk of complications for traveling together”
“After 18 years of building a life here, living in fear of being expelled soon is
Torture in everyday life.

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“I feel like a stranger who has lost his right to live here … I am also afraid of not being near my children and grandchildren 😦 »
About 12% of respondents living in the UK reported experiencing or witnessing acts racism in the public and workplace. 8% of respondents feel that they no longer feel welcome to the United Kingdom. Several also point to a greater difficulty in administrative procedures. British people living abroad also report change of attitude on the part of the local populations, express their embarrassment and their fear of an upsurge of nationalism in their country.
“I’m not sure my employer will keep me”
“I’ve had a verbal assault … for now”
“Disastrous, xenophobia towards European citizens has become such that I avoid talking
In French when I am alone and in public.
“Exposure to slightly racist and condescending attitudes of the day
next day “
“Racist comments, anti-foreign”
“I had administrative difficulties for a job”
“Discrimination, openly displayed racism, various aggressions”
“Badly treated for the NIN procedure and at the job center (…) They made me understand that they were pro-
Brexit … »
“The big impact is above all the new obligation to keep a smile on the job against colleagues
Pro Brexit who boast and mock their xenophobia.
“My mother-in-law was insulted on the bus because she did not speak English. I have never seen that before!
The decline in the value of the pound sterling is also one of the main concerns of respondents. 7% of respondents, expatriates in the UK, talk about the impact of this the value of real estate, the payment of mortgage loans, income received in Pounds and the price of food across the Channel.
Of the 60% of British expatriates who noticed a change in their lives following the referendum on the Brexit, 11% of them mentioned the exchange rate as a major concern.
7% also talk about the decline in their pension and the uncertainty continued payment of pensions to British expatriates.
“Economically, the value of the pound decreases.
“The book has lost its value and I witnessed the manifestations of racism”
“The exchange rate of the pound against the euro did not help me, the price of food
Significantly increased “
“Strong increase in the cost of borrowing in euros in France”
“Carry-over of a home”

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Finally, the fear of losing one’s job is a subject taken up by several respondents
“My husband lost his job”
“My company deports my department in Europe”
“Uncertainty, fear of the future. My job is partly funded by the EU … “
“It’s more complicated to find work”
More than 80% of respondents believe that Brexit is a threat to the UK
82% of expats living in the United Kingdom believe that Brexit is a threat to the country, 18% considering that the result of the referendum is an opportunity for the United Kingdom. The question was slightly different: “Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the United Kingdom? “. To this question, 78% of respondents replied that they were pessimists.
Interestingly: 4 out of 5 British expatriates aged over 50 reported being pessimistic about the future of the United Kingdom. However, more than 50 had voted for the release of the United Kingdom of the European Union during the referendum. Many British expatriates reminded them that they had been living outside the United Kingdom for more than 15 years and thus had no right to vote. Despite this disapproval, the gap between the “leave” and the “remain” (1.26 million votes) is such that even a mass vote of British expatriates would probably not enough to change the results of the referendum.
More than one in three respondents will leave or plan to leave their country of residence
4% of British expatriates and 11% of expatriates in the United Kingdom expressed their intention to leaving their country of residence and that their choice was influenced by the Brexit. 21% of expatriates British and 31% of expatriates in the UK are considering leaving their country of residence because of Brexit.
“This accelerated our departure from the UK. We returned to France.
“More uncertainty, I now consider the possibility of leaving the United Kingdom”
“Decision not to remain in the United Kingdom over the long term”
Freedom to reside in a country of the Union, at the heart of the fears of British expatriates in
The EU
A single-choice question was asked of British expatriates in the EU: “What is your the main concern of the Brexit? “. 36% of respondents mentioned the freedom of residence in the European Union. Far is the freedom to work (15%). The issue of wages and pensions, as well as freedom of movement in the EU, with 12% and 11% respectively.
Depending on the age and professional status of the respondents, the ranking changes: the question of pensions
Naturally a major concern for retirees, while the freedom of work is more important to employees and business leaders. Interestingly, taxes are only a priority for 1.5% of British expatriates.

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Many British companies are studying a relocation of their business
There is much media coverage of British Companies’ will to relocate in one of the countries of the European Union, in order to continue to benefit from the Common Market. At the beginning of the year, the HSBC bank announced the relocation of 1000 jobs to Paris. The survey confirms this trend.
To the question “Is your company planning to leave the UK“, 19% of expatriates living in the United Kingdom respond positively, while 23% of respondents answered negatively, while mentioning that they know one or more companies contemplating this possibility. According to some respondents, large British groups were studying the possibility of installing their headquarters in another EU Member State, or at least to retain a foothold in the Common Market.
As a result, many prudent British companies are preparing for an exit from the single market and consider different options for securing their business. This preparation is done discreetly in a large number of sectors. Respondents cited the transportation sector, industry, E-commerce, animation, IT development, new technologies, R & D activities, support to the company, export activities, education and research, telephony and the petroleum industry.
Expatriates in the UK, between incomprehension, frustration and anger
The survey for expatriates living in the United Kingdom ends with an open question: “What is your general feeling since the announcement of the Brexit? “.
Examples of negative comments
“Fustrating and strange, we are in the process of asking British a fair schooling and a professional future for our family “
“Feeling like a foreigner for the first time since I settled here”
“Drained. I’ve been living here for 10 years, working and paying my taxes. I am married to a
And we have a child born here. And yet I would have to make a request to
£ 1000 to obtain British nationality and to guarantee residence in countries »
“It can only divide a country that was already a lot.
“I feel that the Brexit has allowed the release of underlying xenophobic feelings. It is impossible
To speak of Brexit in rational terms. People invoke their “pride” or the “greatness of the nation
British “as guarantees that the future is better outside the EU.”
Examples of optimistic comments
“I think that in terms of trade relations and movement of people this is not going
Change Europe / UK relations in a major way. So I’m optimistic yes.
“I am convinced that agreements will be put in place so I am not very worried by the aftermath
Brexit. Moreover, working in international mobility, I am well placed to say that
The expatriation will always be present for the talents and the specialized profiles because the companies will be
Always ready to pay the work permits to bring the profiles EU or non-EU.
“The English are pragmatic. If there is Brexit, I think they will have a good deal.
“Neutral!” Doors will close and others open »
While the Brexit is a shock for expatriated English people as well as European expatriates and United Kingdom’s regular trade partners, it was predictable, as shown by an article written on August 2nd 2013 by none other but me, called “Strategic Intelligence, think win-win“. This particular excerpt should have kept everyone’s attention :

The news gives us another example, with this competition launched by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), a British Think-Tank . The Brexit Prize , a ” break ” and ” exit ” award, offers a price ranging from € 100,000 to € 5,000 to the three best proposals that will allow the UK to develop a prosperous economy once the British population has voted in favor of a withdrawal from the European Union. By the way, it should be noted that the authors of the competition, while considering a departure from the United Kingdom, can not refrain from formulating the amount of the reward in Euros, a currency which the United Kingdom has always refused to accept, adopt. A paradox that is not surprising, given the price of the pound in early August 2013

On the political level, the idea of ​​the British exit is not new. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron took over the contents of the famous Bruges speech held by Margaret Thatcher in 1984: we want a Europe open to exchanges, but we do not want a political leadership of Europe, nor In economics or in other fields. On the English parliament side, voting for such a project would most likely fail due to opposition from the Labor and Liberal Democrats, members of the government coalition and Europhiles declared.

The financial community, meanwhile, do not hesitate to let it be known that, within a few years, Frankfurt could supplant London as the first European financial center. Hence, a withdrawal of England from the European Union would accelerate the departure of many investors. Unless the English anticipate this evolution by making their island a real tax paradise. From a trade perspective, the EU accounts for 53% of exports and 3 million jobs . An exit from Britain would be an economic tragedy for the country especially in terms of trade with the continent, say Europhiles. The British Conservatives want to privilege a relationship with the US, but Washington prefers that the British get more involved in the EU. Delhi and Beijing, too. Back in the 70’s, General de Gaulle had described England as a Trojan horse of the United States . An exit from the European Union would therefore be an opportunity to get rid of a partner with a very paralyzing double game.

Besides the Channel, the English have always been skeptical about Europe . Winston Churchill prophesied: “Whenever we have to choose between Europe and the high seas, we will always choose the high seas“. Today, nearly 60% of the British would be in favor of an exit from the European Union . Anti Europeans do not want federalism, regulation and contribution to the European budget. They still regard England as a real world power outside Europe, relying in particular on its former colonial empire, which has become the Commonwealth. Therefore, by withdrawing from the institutions of the European Union, the United Kingdom would offer Europe the opportunity to launch a genuine movement of federalisation .

However, the leaving of England would be a liberation for the European Union. A few voices emerged to emphasize English pragmatism in the face of European idealism.

As a Digital Researcher and Analyst, I feel this is the obvious evidence that the seeds of future lies in our present time, just as the seeds of our present time lies in the past. Understanding this, you will get a clearer insight of who people and companies really are. With this in mind, sales people will improve their pitches, recruiters will understand who their applicants really are and freelancers will fully understand their customers. To know more about it, please contact me.


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